Has anyone else noticed that the weather forecasts are getting better? Here in Boston, we've had a series of accurately predicted storms this winter. And thanks to that, people are starting to depend on the forecast and adjust their plans in advance of the weather. Way to go National Weather Service!
Can you say the same about market forecasters? Science and modeling techniques drive the weather forecasting process, real reasons that explain why it's been getting more accurate over time. Since the weather happens every day, we also experience first-hand whether or not the forecaster was right.
But who's checking on the market forecasters and why do so many people tie their elaborate product plans and investment decisions to high level market forecasts found in the most recent report published by their favorite research shop? Of course, people love to have "the numbers" to support their plans, and the forecasts supply that. Yet, we've always been skeptical about those numbers. It's one thing to accept them as one input among many, into your own construct of the market and trends, but we see too many people believing that a forecast as an actual prediction of the future.
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